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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-20 01:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 17.7, -56.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 10A
2019-09-20 01:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192358 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 56.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so, but some weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-19 22:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192043 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours. Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt, suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better estimate. The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone. Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect the above possibility. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday, north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north- northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on the western side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-19 22:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:42:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:32:06 GMT
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Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-19 22:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 192041 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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