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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 17.5, -55.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-09-19 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192040 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA * ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 55.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 55.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Humberto Graphics
2019-09-19 22:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:35:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:24:55 GMT
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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 29
2019-09-19 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192033 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Humberto is almost a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite images show a well-defined cold and warm front, but they do not appear to be fully connected to the center of circulation yet. In addition, the cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection to the northwest of the exposed low-level center. ASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the wind field of Humberto is very large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 330 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds extending out to 70 n mi from the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is anticipated to become fully extratropical soon, within the next 6 to 12 hours. Although weakening is forecast, Humberto is expected to be a large and powerful extratropical cyclone for a couple of days before it is absorbed by another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the guidance of the GFS model, which typically handles extratropical lows better than the tropical cyclone intensity guidance. Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A slight turn to the left and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as the cyclone rotates around the east and north sides of a mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, a faster east-northeast or east motion is expected when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 38.5N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 40.4N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 42.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 44.6N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 45.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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