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Hurricane RACHEL Public Advisory Number 19
2014-09-29 04:57:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290257 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 ...RACHEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-09-29 04:57:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290257 PWSEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-09-29 04:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290256 TCMEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-28 23:09:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Sep 2014 20:40:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Sep 2014 21:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-09-28 22:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282040 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 The cloud pattern of Rachel has not changed very much in visible satellite imagery during the past several hours. A ragged banded-type eye has occasionally been evident in visible imagery and recent microwave data has shown a similar feature. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased slightly so the initial wind speed has been reduced to 65 kt. Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and a less favorable thermodynamic environment are expected to cause steady weakening during the next couple of days, and Rachel should weaken to a tropical depression in about 48 hours. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. Rachel appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate of 340/4 kt. The latest track guidance has become more divergent with the GFS and HWRF taking Rachel more northward, then northeastward in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over Mexico and a trough moving across the western United States. On the other hand, the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean show less of a poleward motion as the cyclone weakens and become a more shallow system. The NHC forecast leans toward the latter solution and shows Rachel moving slowly northward during the next 24 hours, then turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow after weakening occurs. The new forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the previous NHC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 21.7N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 22.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.6N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.5N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 22.0N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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