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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-09-26 22:39:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 262039 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 115.0W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 115.0W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.7N 115.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.7N 116.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.6N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.3N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-09-26 22:39:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 262039 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-26 17:08:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Sep 2014 14:50:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Sep 2014 15:04:46 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-09-26 16:53:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261453 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA CLARION 50 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-09-26 16:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261452 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 The organization of Rachel's cloud pattern has not changed this morning. The center of the cyclone remains on the northeast (upshear) side and outside of a large mass of very cold-topped convection, presumably a result of some northeasterly vertical wind shear. The deep convection continues to regularly burst, a trend that has been observed for a few days now. The initial intensity estimate is held at 45 kt in agreement with the 1200 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB. Global models show Rachel moving underneath an upper- level ridge axis during the next 24 hours or so, which should result in a relaxation of the persistent shear and allow for some intensification since the storm will still be over warm enough waters. In 2-3 days, Rachel will have moved far enough to the north to experience an increase of southwesterly shear in response to a mid-latitude trough over the western United States. That shear and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamics factors, including somewhat cooler waters, are expected to hasten its weakening beyond 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is not much different than the previous one, and still shows remnant low status at the end of the forecast period. Rachel continues on a west-northwesterly track of 295/12. The cyclone is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north- northwest with a significant decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days when it encounters a weakness caused by the earlier-mentioned western United States trough. By 48 hours, there is a rather distinct split in the track guidance, with the GFS-based model solutions carrying the cyclone quickly northward and northeastward while the ECMWF/UKMET suggest a weaker cyclone steered toward the west-northwest and west. The NHC track forecast stays left of but closer to the GFS through 48 hours due to Rachel's forecast intensification and then shows slow motion for the remainder of the forecast period. The 48-120 hour portion of the track forecast is very near the multi-model consensus, TVCE, and it could trend westward in future forecasts if confidence in a weaker cyclone at that time frame increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.2N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.0N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.8N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 23.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 22.8N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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