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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 39
2017-09-27 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 272033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 ...LEE MAY FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 57.1W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1765 MI...2840 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 57.1 West. Lee is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Lee should turn to the north on Thursday and accelerate to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and continue through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 39
2017-09-27 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 272033 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 57.1W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 57.1W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.2N 57.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.3N 56.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.3N 53.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 41.0N 48.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 48.5N 30.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-27 16:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 14:54:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 15:23:51 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-09-27 16:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271449 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 After an eyewall replacement overnight, satellite images indicate that a larger clear eye has formed, with the coldest cloud-top temperatures seen to date observed with the cyclone. While subjective Dvorak estimates have been fluctuating between 90-102 kt, the latest objective estimate is 102 kt, and a 1050 UTC AMSU estimate from CIMSS is 104 kt. A blend of these data gives an initial wind speed of 100 kt, making Lee the 5th major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic season. A gradual decrease in water temperatures should start a weakening trend within 12-24 hours, with a faster weakening forecast on Thursday and Friday as Lee enters a high-shear environment. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest forecast is very close to the previous one. Lee has turned northwestward, or 315/6. The hurricane should turn to the north on Thursday and northeast by Friday while it moves around the subtropical ridge. Lee is expected to move quite quickly to the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it accelerates in mid-latitude flow. No significant changes were made to the previous track, and the new forecast lies between the ECMWF and the HFIP corrected-consensus model. Around day 3, the cyclone should be close to a cold front, but most of the models still show it separate from that feature. By day 4, all of the guidance have the system decaying into a trough, and that is the solution provided below. An ASCAT pass from this morning indicated that Lee has grown in size, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified to reflect that change. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 30.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 31.4N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 33.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 35.5N 55.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 46.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-27 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 27 the center of Lee was located near 30.6, -56.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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