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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-09-26 16:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 261438 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a well-defined eye on visible satellite images. Satellite intensity estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of at least 90 kt. Further strengthening is possible for the next day or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively light shear. Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger, and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane within the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast is raised from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance. Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water temperatures decrease. The small tropical cyclone should weaken fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt. The hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it enters the faster mid-latitude flow. There are some speed differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track spread. The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 29.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-26 16:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 26 the center of Lee was located near 29.9, -53.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 34
2017-09-26 16:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261438 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 ...LEE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 53.7W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 53.7 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). The hurricane is expected to turn northwestward on Wednesday and northward on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee could strengthen a little more before weakening likely begins on Thursday. Lee is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2017-09-26 16:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 261438 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 34
2017-09-26 16:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 261437 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 53.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 53.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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