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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 27
2017-09-24 22:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 ...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 49.7W ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 49.7 West. Lee is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. A turn toward the southwest or west is expected by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-24 16:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:54:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:54:28 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-09-24 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241449 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 The rapid intensification of Lee appears to have slowed for now. Lee has a well-defined 10 to 15 n mi wide eye, but the cloud tops surrounding the eye have not cooled since the previous advisory. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS all support 75 to 80 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. The intensity forecast of the small hurricane is somewhat tricky. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Lee is forecast to remain in a low-shear environment for the next few days, but the slow motion of the hurricane is likely to cause upwelling and a decrease in sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane. Although the intensity guidance is slightly lower this cycle, the new NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and brings Lee to near major hurricane strength within the next 24 to 36 hours. Late in the period decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should impart a weakening trend. Lee has turned southeastward. The track models are similar with the overall forecast scenario of Lee moving slowly southeastward today, then turning west-southwestward or westward late Monday and Tuesday as a high pressure ridge builds to the north and northwest of the hurricane. This ridge is forecast to weaken later in the week, with Lee turning northward, then northeastward ahead of Maria as the mid-latitude westerlies dip southward. There is a large bifurcation in the guidance models after about 48 hours, due to the location and timing of recurvature. The NHC track leans closer to the ECMWF and latest European ensemble mean, but the track forecast is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 31.4N 49.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 31.1N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 30.7N 48.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 30.2N 49.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 30.1N 50.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 30.7N 51.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 32.2N 52.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-24 16:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TINY LEE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.4, -49.9 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 26
2017-09-24 16:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241448 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 49.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.7N 48.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 49.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.1N 50.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.7N 51.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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