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Tropical Depression Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-11-17 09:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 170837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics
2019-11-17 03:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 02:35:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 02:35:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-11-17 03:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Raymond's cloud pattern has continued to lose organization since the last advisory, with the remaining convection now occurring in a ragged band to the east of the center. The initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/5. A developing mid-latitude deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula is becoming the main steering influence for Raymond, and this feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and accelerate during the next 12-24 h. After that, Raymond or its remnants should turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitude system. Southwesterly vertical shear is increasing over the tropical cyclone, and it should increase further during the next couple of days. Thus, continued weakening is forecast, and Raymond is now expected to become a depression in 18-24 h, a remnant low by 36 h, and dissipate completely after 48 h. If organized convection does not return to the cyclone, all of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-17 03:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAYMOND SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM MST Sat Nov 16 the center of Raymond was located near 16.9, -112.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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