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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 54
2017-09-18 22:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182044 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day. The hurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it remains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the north of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the hurricane. Jose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for about another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane will likely maintain its intensity during that time. Shortly thereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in good agreement with the consensus aids. The hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion is northward at 9 kt. The overall track forecast philosophy is unchanged. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the south or southwest at the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 34.8N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 38.9N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 39.9N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1800Z 39.4N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1800Z 38.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2017-09-18 22:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 182043 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 1(18) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 3(20) 1(21) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 6(22) 3(25) 1(26) WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 4(24) 3(27) 2(29) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 5(22) 2(24) 1(25) BOSTON MA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 9(23) 5(28) 4(32) 1(33) HYANNIS MA 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) 14(43) 8(51) 3(54) 2(56) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 10(10) 29(39) 16(55) 7(62) 4(66) 1(67) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 7( 7) 15(22) 9(31) 7(38) 3(41) 1(42) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 5(20) 4(24) 3(27) 1(28) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 5(21) 4(25) 3(28) 2(30) HARTFORD CT 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 4(23) 3(26) 2(28) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 8(29) 6(35) 3(38) 1(39) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 2(17) 1(18) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 10(10) 19(29) 8(37) 4(41) 4(45) 1(46) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ISLIP NY 34 1 7( 8) 11(19) 5(24) 3(27) 3(30) 2(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 4(20) 3(23) 2(25) 1(26) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 3(20) 2(22) 2(24) NEWARK NJ 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) TRENTON NJ 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 2(16) 2(18) 1(19) NWS EARLE NJ 34 2 5( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 2(21) 2(23) 2(25) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) PHILADELPHIA 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) 2(16) 1(17) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 1(19) 2(21) 2(23) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) DOVER DE 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) 2(15) 1(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) 2(18) 1(19) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) 2(18) 1(19) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 1(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 2(11) NORFOLK VA 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 1(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 2(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 2(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 54
2017-09-18 22:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 182043 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM FENWICK ISLAND... DELAWARE TO FIRE ISLAND INLET... NEW YORK. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL TO HULL * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON * NEW HAVEN TO WATCH HILL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.1W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......190NE 200SE 110SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 270SE 240SW 235NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.1W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 70.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.9N 70.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.9N 68.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.0N 67.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.4N 67.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 38.5N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 71.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-18 19:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 17:38:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 15:25:02 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-18 19:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Jose was located near 34.2, -71.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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