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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 52

2017-09-18 10:47:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180847 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...JOSE WEAKENS A LITTLE...STILL MOVING NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 71.4W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 71.4 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, however, Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL... Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 52

2017-09-18 10:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180847 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FENWICK ISLAND TO SANDY HOOK * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO PLYMOUTH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 71.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 200SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 71.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 71.4W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.2N 71.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 71.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.8N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.9N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 38.3N 68.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 71.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane Jose Graphics

2017-09-18 07:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 05:36:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 03:24:43 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-18 07:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Jose was located near 32.6, -71.6 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 51A

2017-09-18 07:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180533 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 51A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 71.6W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 71.6 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, and pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, and Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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