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Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-13 04:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BARRY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 the center of Barry was located near 28.6, -91.0 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 11
2019-07-13 04:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 ...BARRY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 91.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 91.0 West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the northwest should begin overnight, followed by a turn toward the north Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will approach the south-central coast of Louisiana tonight and then make landfall along the south-central Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana coast on Saturday. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. An observation platform at South Timbalier Block off the coast of Louisiana has recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley beginning as early as Saturday morning. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western portions of the Tennessee Valley. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area later tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions currently spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Saturday night. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late tonight through Saturday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-07-13 04:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 130246 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 12 7(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) STENNIS MS 34 9 22(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BURAS LA 34 52 4(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 2 10(12) 3(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 71 10(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BATON ROUGE LA 34 68 25(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BATON ROUGE LA 50 9 41(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 67 15(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) MORGAN CITY LA 64 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 4 51(55) 14(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 70 27(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) LAFAYETTE LA 50 5 46(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 88 10(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW IBERIA LA 50 15 42(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 57 1(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) FORT POLK LA 34 3 39(42) 11(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) FORT POLK LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 11 54(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 45 23(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) JASPER TX 34 2 18(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 4 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GALVESTON TX 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 7 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MATAGORDA TX 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-07-13 04:45:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130245 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 91.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 91.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 90.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 110SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.9N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.7N 90.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 91.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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US Refiners In Path Of Storm Barry To Keep Running
2019-07-13 02:31:49| OGI
ost U.S. refiners with plants in the path of Tropical Storm Barry scrambled on Friday to keep them running, as the storm continued to strengthen and was projected to become the season's first hurricane.
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