je.st
news
Tag: barry
Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-12 22:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 20:57:24 GMT
Tags: map
storm
barry
tropical
Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-12 22:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 20:57:24 GMT
Tags: map
storm
barry
tropical
Tropical Storm Barry Graphics
2019-07-12 22:41:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 20:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 21:24:32 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
barry
tropical
Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-07-12 22:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122039 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Although the storm continues to look disorganized in satellite imagery, surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 993 mb with the maximum winds still near 55 kt. A prominent cloud swirl has rotated more than halfway around the eastern and northern side of the mean center since 17Z, and there were several reports of strong winds in association with this feature. Strong convection persists to the south of the center, but to this point northerly shear has prevented the convection from becoming better organized. The initial motion is now an erratic 300/5. Barry should turn northwestward during the next several hours as it approaches a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley, and this motion should bring the center across the central coast of Louisiana between 12-24 h. After landfall, the system should move northward through a break in the ridge until the 72 h point, after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward since the last advisory, but the shift is not large enough to require significant changes to the forecast track. Thus, the new track forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous one, and it lies just east of the the various consensus models. Barry continues to strengthen despite the asymmetric convective structure, the shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance forecasts continued intensification until landfall, and so will the NHC forecast. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Barry is expected to become a hurricane near the time it makes landfall between the 12 and 24 h forecasts points. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low expected to occur in about 72 h and dissipation after 96 h. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 28.7N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 30.1N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/0600Z 31.3N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1800Z 35.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 38.0N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
barry
Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-07-12 22:38:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 122038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 2100 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 2 9(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GULFPORT MS 34 10 15(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) STENNIS MS 34 7 33(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 2 14(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 61 21(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 8 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BATON ROUGE LA 34 45 47(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BATON ROUGE LA 50 3 56(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 36 46(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MORGAN CITY LA 64 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 55(57) 24(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 39 57(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) LAFAYETTE LA 50 1 58(59) 6(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW IBERIA LA 34 65 33(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW IBERIA LA 50 3 60(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 38 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 8( 9) 10(19) 5(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) FORT POLK LA 34 2 44(46) 20(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) FORT POLK LA 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 65(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 23 47(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) CAMERON LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 1 24(25) 10(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 30(32) 3(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GALVESTON TX 34 4 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HOUSTON TX 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 5 15(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Sites : [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] next »