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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-06-11 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 The organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the eye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure. An average of TAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from UW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt. Bud still has the opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12 hours or so before the environmental conditions become less conducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which weakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual decay. Bud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at about 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud continues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the HCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost of the models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-11 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF HURRICANE BUD MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BUT RAINBANDS ARE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 the center of Bud was located near 17.0, -107.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 9
2018-06-11 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 112032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...CORE OF HURRICANE BUD MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BUT RAINBANDS ARE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 107.4W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 107.4 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday, and this general motion should continue into mid-week. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to continue moving away from the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening or fluctuations in intensity are possible later today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-06-11 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 112032 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 16(25) 15(40) 1(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 14(23) 14(37) 1(38) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 2(27) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 1 8( 9) 28(37) 24(61) 10(71) 1(72) X(72) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 11(29) 5(34) 1(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-06-11 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 112031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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