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Hurricane Chris Forecast Advisory Number 18

2018-07-11 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 234 WTNT23 KNHC 110243 TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE CHRIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 71.4W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 71.4W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.8N 69.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 42.8N 59.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 46.6N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 53.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 57.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 61.5N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 71.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Chris Graphics

2018-07-11 01:01:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 23:01:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 23:01:44 GMT

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Hurricane Chris Graphics

2018-07-10 23:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 21:39:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 21:34:45 GMT

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Hurricane Chris Forecast Advisory Number 17

2018-07-10 23:02:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 072 WTNT23 KNHC 102102 CCA TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 CORRECTED 34-KT WIND RADII AT 12- AND 24-HOUR PERIODS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE CHRIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 72.4W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 130SE 100SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 72.4W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.9N 70.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.1N 67.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 40.5N 62.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 44.7N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 51.0N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 55.2N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 59.0N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 72.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Chris Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-07-10 22:54:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 951 WTNT43 KNHC 102054 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology by more than six weeks. The aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with SFMR winds of 73-77 kt. Dropsondes in the the same area found equivalent surface winds of 73-74 kt, and the most recent central pressure observed was 980 mb. Furthermore, satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, based on a well-defined 20-nmi-diameter clear eye. These data support a solid 75-kt advisory intensity. The initial motion is a slightly faster 050/09 kt. Chris is north of a narrow subtropical ridge, and water vapor imagery also indicates that Chris is beginning to feel the influence of a digging trough over the northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic states. The combination of these two features should gradually accelerate the hurricane northeastward at a faster forward speed through 96 hours. By the time Chris passes well southeast of Nova Scotia in 36 hours or so, the hurricane will be moving at a forward speed of more than 25 kt. On the new forecast track, Chris is still expected to move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 48-60 hours. The latest model guidance has a much larger spread in both cross-track and along-track motions. To smooth out these differences, the new forecast track is down the middle of the tighter HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN consensus model suite. Now that Chris has moved away from the cold upwelling region, some additional intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so due to 27-28 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone and the well-established current outflow pattern that is expected to persist during that time. Slow weakening should begin shortly after Chris peaks in intensity due to the cyclone moving over cooler waters, creating some modest upwelling as a result. By 36 hours, Chris will have moved well north of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder than 15 deg C. The combination of the much colder water and southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt should induce a rapid transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is above the intensity guidance through 12 hours, and then shows weakening after that similar to the LGEM and IVCN models. Now that Chris is moving away from the United States, the previously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been canceled. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 33.7N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 34.9N 70.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 40.5N 62.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 44.7N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 51.0N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z 55.2N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1800Z 59.0N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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