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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-07-08 22:31:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 74.6W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 74.6W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.5N 74.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 43.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 50.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 74.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-08 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 14:36:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 14:36:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-07-08 16:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081433 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of Chris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better defined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum winds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity assigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft will check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized with the low-level center now embedded within the convection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane in about 36 hours in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13 degree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition. Since the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone has barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 32.9N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 33.0N 74.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 32.5N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 32.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-07-08 16:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 081433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 11(30) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 1( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 27(52) 2(54) X(54) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 2(21) X(21) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 21(33) 18(51) 1(52) X(52) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 17(45) 1(46) X(46) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-08 16:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 the center of Chris was located near 32.9, -75.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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