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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-10-29 03:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290245 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that the structure of Oscar has changed little over the past several hours. Microwave imagery has shown a ring or eye feature which is at least partly encircled by deep convection, and an eye has made occasional appearances in infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity remains 65 kt. One change from the previous advisory is that recent scatterometer data show that Oscar has smaller 34-kt wind radii than previously thought, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified. The initial motion remains 270/14. Oscar is approaching the western end of a large low- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic, and thus it should turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next 24 h or so. From 24-72 h, the hurricane should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies on the east side of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through the western and central Atlantic. The models are in good agreement on the forecast track through 72 h, then show significant differences based on whether Oscar merges with a new cut-off low pressure area over the central Atlantic or remains a separate system in the westerlies. The latest GFS has joined the UKMET in showing Oscar racing northeastward into the northeastern Atlantic by 120 h as a separate system. In contrast, the HWRF and the FV3 models show a sharp turn toward the south as the new low captures Oscar. The ECMWF is between these extremes in showing a more gradual turn toward the east well to the east of the HWRF/FV3 and well to the southwest of the GFS/UKMET. The new forecast track is a little west of the previous track in the early part of the forecast based on the current position and motion. Later in the forecast period, it has been shifted a little to the east in best agreement with the ECMWF. Oscar is forecast to remain in a moist and unstable environment for the next 36-48 h, and the trough approaching from the west is likely to create a divergent outflow pattern. Based on this, the intensity forecast now shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous advisory. After reaching its peak intensity in 36-48 h, it appears likely that the extratropical transition will occur near the 72 h point before the winds drop below hurricane force. After transition, Oscar is expected to gradually decay. It should be noted that if the FV3 scenario verifies, Oscar may maintain tropical cyclone status beyond 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 25.6N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 25.9N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 29.1N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 32.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 39.0N 48.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z 45.0N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-29 03:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 28 the center of Oscar was located near 25.6, -57.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 9
2018-10-29 03:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290245 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 ...OSCAR MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 57.0W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion with a decrease in forward speed are expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest early Monday and a northwestward motion on Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Recent satellite wind data indicate that Oscar has a small area of strong winds. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-10-29 03:45:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 290245 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-10-29 03:44:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290244 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 57.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 120SE 120SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 57.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 56.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.9N 58.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.1N 58.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 39.0N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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