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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-01 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012035 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Deep convection has redeveloped and persisted near and over Emily's low-level center since the previous advisory, with some weak banding features having developed in the eastern semicircle. Cirrus outflow has also pushed back westward over the center, an indication that the convection is feeding back into Emily's circulation. An ASCAT pass around 1435Z revealed a closed circulation and surface winds of 30-31 kt just east of the center. Also, nearby buoy 41010 has been reporting 27-kt winds at a 4-meter elevation for the past several hours. Based on those wind data, the initial intensity has been nudged upward to 30 kt. Emily is moving 050/13 kt. The depression remains embedded in modest southwesterly flow ahead of deep-layer trough and frontal system along the U.S. east coast, and a general northeastward motion away from the United States is forecast for the next several days. The NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The aforementioned ASCAT wind data also indicated that Emily is embedded within a pre-frontal trough, and surface and upper-air data further indicate that a weak cold front lies within 60 nmi north and west of the depression. Given the proximity of the front and the fact the system is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough, Emily could transition to an extratropical low within the next 12-24h or even open up into an elongated surface trough. Owing to this possible weak baroclinic interaction, little change in strength is expected during the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 30.3N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 02/1800Z 33.1N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/0600Z 34.6N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1800Z 35.9N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 37.8N 61.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z 39.3N 54.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emily (AT1/AL062017)
2017-08-01 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EMILY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Emily was located near 30.3, -77.7 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Emily Graphics
2017-08-01 17:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 15:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 15:40:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-08-01 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011440 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 After an earlier convective hiatus, recent satellite, radar, and lightning data indicate that thunderstorm activity has redeveloped within 20 nmi of the low-level center. Although the small circulation is somewhat elongated northeast-to-southwest, I am hesitant to discontinue advisories on Emily at this time in case the new convection persists. Buoy 41010 southeast of the center has been reporting sustained winds of 25-29 kt at a 4-meter elevation early this morning, but the initial intensity will remain at 25 kt since convection has only recently redeveloped. Emily has made the anticipated turn toward the northeast and is now moving 050/12 kt. The depression is embedded in southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving, deep-layer trough and frontal system. Emily is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the western Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period, remain well offshore of the southeast and east coasts of the United States. The new official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track, and is between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Emily is expected to remain ahead of a cold front for the next 24 hours or so, which could allow for some slight strengthening while the southwesterly vertical wind shear remains in the 10-15-kt range. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to steadily increase, exceeding 30 kt by 60 h, resulting in Emily becoming an extratropical or post-tropical remnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory, and is similar to the the consensus model IVCN and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.3N 78.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 32.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 33.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z 35.3N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 37.6N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z 39.0N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emily (AT1/AL062017)
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Emily was located near 29.3, -78.9 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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