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Remnants of Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-23 16:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 731 WTNT41 KNHC 231431 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Eleven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Visible images show that the depression has degenerated into a trough of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. This disturbance is moving westward toward an even more hostile shear environment, and regeneration is not anticipated. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Remnants of Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-09-23 16:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 729 FONT11 KNHC 231431 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF ELEVEN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS ...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Remnants of Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
2018-09-23 16:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Eleven was located near 14.5, -56.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
Remnants of Eleven Public Advisory Number 7
2018-09-23 16:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 334 WTNT31 KNHC 231430 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Eleven Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 56.0W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven were located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 56.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected over the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Remnants of Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-09-23 16:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 146 WTNT21 KNHC 231430 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 56.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 56.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 56.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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