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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2015-09-28 22:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 282045 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 7(21) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number speed wind tropical

Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-09-28 22:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.5, -70.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression eleven

Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 4

2015-09-28 22:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 ...DEPRESSION SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 70.2W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 70.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected over the next day or two. Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. The Air Force plane measured a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hayes

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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 4

2015-09-28 22:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 282043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 70.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 70.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 71.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.6N 73.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 38.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 70.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/HAYES

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