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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-07-08 01:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 072346 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday. By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-07-08 01:22:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 072322 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined since yesterday. Some further organization of this system is possible during the next few days while it drifts generally northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development this weekend, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake


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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

2020-07-07 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 20:34:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 20:34:58 GMT

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-07-07 22:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 667 WTPZ45 KNHC 072033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Cristina is still being affected by some northeasterly vertical wind shear as visible satellite imagery shows that the center is located near the northeastern edge of the large curved convective band. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and a recent ASCAT overpass revealed a small area of 35-40 kt wind vectors near the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The moderate vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to abate over the next 12-24 hours. This, along with SSTs of 28-29C, should allow for strengthening and Cristina is still forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Although Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated over the past 24 hours, with the more favorable atmospheric conditions anticipated beginning Wednesday, a period of steady to rapid strengthening is still possible. The latest intensity guidance shows a slightly lower peak wind speed than before, so the new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged in that direction. After 72 hours, Cristina will be moving over cooler waters and steady weakening is expected later in the period. Satellite fixes show that Cristina is moving west-northwestward or 305/11 kt. There has been no significant change to the track foreast reasoning. Cristina should continue on a west-northwestward heading over the next several days to the south of a large mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States. The overall track guidance envelop has shifted slightly northward, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track forecast lies between the previous official foreast and the most recent consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 13.0N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.8N 105.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.0N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 18.0N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.0N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 20.5N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 21.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 the center of Cristina was located near 13.0, -103.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 5

2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 103.8W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 103.8 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072033 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.8N 105.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 110.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 114.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.8N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 103.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 8(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 5(36) X(36) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 12(52) X(52) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 10(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-07-07 19:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 071733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Georgia continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern U.S. The low is expected to move generally northeastward toward the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states and some development of this system is possible later this week if it moves over water. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-07-07 19:19:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 071719 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it drifts generally northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Brown

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