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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-06-19 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190235 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 A 2239Z SSMI/S microwave image indicated that a small mid-level circulation remained, but Carlotta's low-level circulation was either very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast of Mexico. For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the low-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The upper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery has continued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the circulation, and what little convection that does exist is rather amorphous-looking and disorganized. Based on the disheveled appearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low pressure system with 20-kt winds. The initial motion estimate is 315/03 kt. Steering currents are weak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent Carlotta's remnant circulation from moving inland over the high mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system is forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico for the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the monsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday. Although there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of convection, proximity to land, modest northerly vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from regenerating into a tropical cyclone. Although Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of tropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. This is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low... please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Graphics

2018-06-19 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jun 2018 02:32:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jun 2018 03:23:18 GMT


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2018-06-19 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190231 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Public Advisory Number 18

2018-06-19 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 ...CARLOTTA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 103.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 103.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight into Tuesday morning. On the forecast track, the center will be near or over the southwest coast of Mexico tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is expected to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Carlotta. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart


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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)

2018-06-19 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOTTA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.2, -103.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 18

2018-06-19 04:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190231 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 103.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CARLOTTA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW... PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-06-19 01:45:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 182345 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that a surface trough associated with a mid- and upper-level low pressure system has remained stationary near the Texas coast during the day. This system continues to produce a widespread area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by strong gusty winds, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-06-19 01:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 182332 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Carlotta, located just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Landsea


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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics

2018-06-18 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 20:37:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 20:37:03 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression tropical depression

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-06-18 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 The center of the depression, if it exists, remains very difficult to locate either with geostationary or microwave satellite imagery. In fact, the microwave images suggest that there is no longer a center. Unfortunately, the scatterometer swath missed the estimated location of Carlotta so that was of no help. Given these uncertainties, we will write at least one more advisory on this system, but the next one could be the last. The current intensity is held at 25 kt based on continuity and a Dvorak estimate from SAB. It is anticipated that the small system will dissipate by early tomorrow due to interaction with land. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/4 kt. There is little in the way of track guidance available, since most of the models are unable to analyze a center for the tropical cyclone. Carlotta or its remnant should continue to move northwestward to north-northwestward, in a weakness of the subtropical ridge, until dissipation. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.1N 103.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

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