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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-26 01:16:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

581 ABNT20 KNHC 252316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and the low has not yet developed into a tropical depression. Some additional development is possible tonight as the low moves northward near or over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina. After tonight, development appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves generally north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast tonight. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized during the last several hours, however, the system still appears to lack a closed circulation. This disturbance is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is currently centered about 950 miles southwest of the Azores Islands, and it is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-26 01:09:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

928 ABPZ20 KNHC 252309 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa, located about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A trough of low pressure located a little over 1300 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the end of the week while it moves westward across the central Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves westward to west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky


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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics

2018-09-25 22:56:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 20:56:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 21:22:02 GMT

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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-09-25 22:54:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 927 WTPZ45 KNHC 252054 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 Rosa has become better organized this afternoon. An earlier 1601 UTC GMI microwave image showed impressive banding features in the south semicircle with a banding eye type feature wrapping three quarters around the center of circulation. A blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Although there is some modest northeasterly shear impinging in the northeast side of the cyclone, the SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that this shear will diminish in 12 hours. Subsequently, the SHIPS RI index and the DTOPS model indicate a relatively high probability of rapid intensification in 24 hours. Accordingly, the NHC forecast calls for Rosa to become a hurricane in 12 hours based on these data. Further strengthening through the 72 hour period is expected and is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus. Beyond day 3, gradual weakening is expected due to increasing shear and slightly cooler waters. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290 at 8 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the next 3 days south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific. In response to a mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, Rosa should turn towards the northwest to north over the weekend. It is worth noting that there is considerable along and cross-track spread in the track guidance beyond day 3. Therefore, the official track forecast follows the TVCN consensus, which lies in between the left and right global model outlier clusters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.0N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Ramos/Roberts

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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-25 22:53:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 the center of Rosa was located near 15.0, -108.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 3

2018-09-25 22:53:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 478 WTPZ35 KNHC 252053 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 ...ROSA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 108.9W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 108.9 West. Rosa is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts, and Rosa is expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Ramos/Roberts

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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2018-09-25 22:53:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 479 FOPZ15 KNHC 252053 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 81 8(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 110W 50 45 11(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 110W 64 15 7(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 25(43) 11(54) 1(55) 1(56) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 19(22) 27(49) 13(62) 2(64) X(64) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 1(23) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 3(31) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 35(51) 12(63) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 9(33) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER RAMOS/ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 3

2018-09-25 22:53:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 367 WTPZ25 KNHC 252053 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RAMOS/ROBERTS

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-25 22:08:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

941 ABNT20 KNHC 252008 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Resent NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation of the low remains elongated and not well defined. However, this system could still become a tropical depression this afternoon or tonight while it moves slowly northwestward to northward. By Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina this afternoon and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located more than 800 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force on its north side. Although satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, this disturbance could still redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-25 21:44:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

202 ABPZ20 KNHC 251944 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Rosa, located almost 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A trough of low pressure located a little over 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the end of the week while it moves westward into the central Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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