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Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics

2019-10-14 04:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 02:46:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 03:24:16 GMT


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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 11

2019-10-14 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140245 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 Deep convection associated with Melissa has continued to decrease in coverage this evening, and the system has become an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak current intensity (CI) number and recent ASCAT data that revealed some 30-kt winds well southeast of the center. Strong westerly vertical wind shear and cool SSTs along the path of storm is expected to cause weakening, and Melissa should degenerate into a remnant low later tonight or early Monday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a frontal boundary in 2 to 3 days. Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 075/16 kt. There has been no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Melissa should accelerate east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or two as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 40.2N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown


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Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)

2019-10-14 04:45:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 13 the center of Melissa was located near 40.2, -56.7 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.


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Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 11

2019-10-14 04:45:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140245 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 ...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 56.7W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 56.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A further increase in forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast through early Monday around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa that are affecting much of U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada will gradually subside on Monday. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown


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Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2019-10-14 04:45:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 140245 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN


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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 11

2019-10-14 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140244 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-14 01:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

510 ABNT20 KNHC 132343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the system decreased somewhat earlier this evening, satellite imagery indicates that they are beginning to increase once again. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorm over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which is likely to inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, and any development of this system over the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-14 01:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 132341 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains broad and elongated without a well-defined center, according to recent satellite-derived wind data. Upper-level winds are increasing over this system, and the chances for significant development continue to decrease as the low moves slowly north-northeastward. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Baja California Sur, southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg


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Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics

2019-10-13 22:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 20:41:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 20:41:24 GMT

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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 10

2019-10-13 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 132040 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 After an earlier flare-up of convection, thunderstorm activity has decreased significantly in both coverage and intensity during the past 4 hours. Convection is now limited to a small area in the northeastern quadrant, and the inner-core region is becoming dominated by stable cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on 1400Z ASCAT wind data showing 35-36 kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle and subsequent erosion of the convective pattern. Melissa continues to gradually accelerate east-northeastward and the initial motion estimate is now 075/16 kt. An additional increase in forward speed, in conjunction with a turn toward the east, is expected by tonight and then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near an average of the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. The unfavorable combination of westerly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt and SSTs less than 24 deg C is expected to continue the current weakening trend, with Melissa becoming a remnant low by Monday morning. The cyclone is forecast to merge or interact with a larger extratropical low by Wednesday and dissipate. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 39.9N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 40.5N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/1800Z 41.4N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 41.9N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 41.7N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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