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Tropical Depression Sara Public Advisory Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 172034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 89.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Advisory Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 172034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 89.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-17 18:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171736 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Sara, located inland over the southern Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 18:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 12:00 PM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Sara was located near 17.4, -89.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Public Advisory Number 16A
2024-11-17 18:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171735 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 89.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The governments of Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico have discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for their coastal regions. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue as the depression moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Graphics
2024-11-17 18:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 17:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 15:22:51 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-17 18:09:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
686 ABPZ20 KNHC 171709 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Sun Nov 17 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Central Portion of the East Pacific: An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms displaced northeast of the center due to strong upper-level winds. Development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly eastward or east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 16
2024-11-17 16:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 171530 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-17 15:46:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 15:22:51 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-11-17 15:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171445 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Sara made landfall this morning at around 1400 UTC along the coast of Belize, near Dangriga. Before landfall, Sara made a bit of a convective resurgence near the center, with bursting deep convection and some GLM lightning flashes occuring. Radar out of Belize City also showed a modest attempt at banding on the southern side of the tropical storm. With that said, the surface observations around the circulation of Sara are unimpressive, with the highest sustained wind at Calabash Caye near this convection of only 27 kt. A blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates supported an intensity of 35 kt at landfall and that remains the value for this advisory. The tropical storm has been moving west-northwestward up until landfall, estimated at 290/4 kt. The mid-level ridging that is now steering the cyclone is pivoting more east, and this should result in Sara turning more northwestward or north-northwestward as it moves across the Yucatan, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. However, the system is expected to weaken over land, ultimately degenerating into a trough of low pressure before it moves back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. I will note that track aids extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because these aids are tracking the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. As discussed yesterday, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara could aid in enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where WPC currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.1N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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