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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 30
2017-09-25 16:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 251445 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 While Lee is still displaying a distinct 10-15 nm eye in the GOES-16 visible imagery this morning, the deep convection of the cirrus canopy is lopsided with most of the cold cloud tops west of the center. This may be due to moderate vertical shear induced by an upper-low southwest of the hurricane. The SAB, TAFB, and Advanced Dvorak Technique intensity estimates have not changed, so 80 kt is retained for the maximum sustained winds. Lee is now moving again, with a 12-h motion of south-southwest at 2 kt. As a narrow mid-level ridge builds to the north of Lee, the hurricane should turn toward the west on Tuesday and west-northwest on Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed. Starting in about three days, Lee should begin recurvature toward the northeast, accelerating to over 20 kt by day 5 as the hurricane enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted some toward the west through day 4, toward the tightly-packed global and hurricane model guidance. The moderate vertical shear affecting Lee and some upwelled cool water under the hurricane may cause slightly weakening shortly. After Lee moves back toward warmer water, the hurricane may restrengthen some, but it is not anticipated that the system will reach major hurricane status. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF, LGEM, and COAMPS guidance. Lee remains a tiny hurricane, though no recent information has been available about its wind radii. The official size forecast anticipates a slight increase in tropical storm force and hurricane force wind radii, based upon the RVCN size consensus method. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 30.8N 49.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 30.6N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 30.6N 52.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 31.0N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 31.5N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 33.4N 54.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 45.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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