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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-11 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 112032 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 Melissa continues to churn south-southwest of New England. A late-morning scatterometer overpass indicated that the large wind field remains in tact with only a slight decrease in maximum winds, while satellite imagery continues to show banding surrounding the circulation center. A recent Hebert-Poteat intensity estimate from TAFB also suggests some slight weakening, and the intensity will be lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Strong upper-level westerly winds will cause Melissa to weaken over next couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is then expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days. For the past few hours, Melissa has been moving slowly south-southeastward as the cyclone remains in weak steering flow under an upper-level trough. Later tonight, an approaching mid-latitude trough currently crossing the upper Midwest will begin to force an eastward motion, with a gradual increase in forward speed Saturday through Monday. This motion will continue until the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little to the right due to a southward shift in the guidance and lies on the northern edge of the consensus aids. Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the central Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary. Key Messages: 1. The expected magnitude of wind and coastal flooding impacts along portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England has not changed. For information on these hazards, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. 2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 38.2N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 38.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 38.3N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 38.8N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 39.2N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 40.7N 52.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto
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