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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-09-18 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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