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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-22 22:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222039 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Satellite images indicate that the center of the depression remains sheared, with the complex center on the northeast side of the main convective mass. Cirrus cloud blowoff from the band in the northwestward quadrant of the cyclone is pretty clearly moving right into the center, causing the asymmetric appearance. Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will stay at 30 kt. The upper-level environment is not ideal for strengthening with a trough located north of the cyclone. Most of the models lift the trough northward during the next couple of days, which generally causes lighter shear. However, in a few days, increasing easterly shear from the outflow of TD Nine-E is expected to arrest the strengthening of the cyclone. Model guidance, however, is rather divergent, with the statistical-based tools showing little strengthening, while the regional hurricane models all turn the depression into a significant hurricane in a few days. Given that this forecast also depends on how much Nine-E strengthens and a questionable environment, the regional hurricane models look overdone, so the official forecast will stay on the conservative side of the guidance. The depression is moving toward the west at about 6 kt. A ridge between the depression and TS Greg is forecast to steer Ten-E to the west or west-southwest over the next several days. Guidance is not in great agreement, with the GFS and ECMWF showing very different solutions. The GFS has the strongest ridge, which causes the depression to take a sharper turn to the southwest, while the ECMWF is north of all of the other guidance with a weaker ridge and more of an interaction with TD Nine-E. Despite these significant differences, the model consensus remains close to the previous NHC forecast, so little change is made to the latest NHC track prediction. Given the potential binary track interaction, there is a lot of uncertainty at long range with the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 14.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.5N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 14.5N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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