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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-11-17 09:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170839 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this morning as intrusions of dry air have caused the area of thunderstorms that was previously near the estimated center to dissipate. New clusters of convection have recently developed but they lack organization. A couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the overall circulation is less defined than it was 24 hours ago, however, the passes missed the estimated center making it difficult to determine whether a well-defined center still exists. Given the current overall lack of organization, the initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low over the system, continued intrusions of dry air associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are likely to prevent significant re-organization of the deep convection, and strengthening is not anticipated. The NHC forecast again calls for no change in wind speed, however, the system could dissipate or become a remnant low much sooner than indicated below. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 10.0N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 11.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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