je.st
news
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-20 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A new, solid burst of deep convection developed over Mario's center a little after 2200 UTC and has persisted since that time. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates went back up to T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was 50-55 kt. As a result, Mario's initial intensity has been brought back up to 55 kt. Mario is essentially being pulled northeastward, or 045/8 kt, toward the circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena. That being said, all the major global models are now in agreement that Mario will not merge with Lorena, and a strengthening mid-level ridge over northern Mexico should force Mario to turn sharply northward and then northwestward during the next 2 days. This northwestward motion is likely to continue for the rest of the 5-day forecast period, with the cyclone's forward speed slowing down on days 4 and 5 as it moves into a weaker steering pattern. This forecast reasoning is not too different from the previous forecast, although the new NHC track has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous one to account for an overall shift in the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the deterministic ECMWF is an outlier and brings Mario to the Baja California peninsula as a weakening storm, but the bulk of that model's ensemble members favor the ocean-ward tracks shown by the other models. These ensemble solutions help to increase our confidence in the NHC track forecast. UW-CIMSS is analyzing about 5 kt of shear over Mario, and given the expanding convective canopy over the center, this could definitely be realistic. The shear could remain low enough for the next day or so to allow for some strengthening, which is shown by a number of the intensity models, and by extension, the NHC forecast. After 24 hours, increasing easterly shear is likely to lead to gradual weakening, with colder waters leading to a dissipation of all convection by day 4, if not sooner. The NHC forecast therefore now shows Mario degenerating into a remnant low on day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
mario
storm
Category:Transportation and Logistics