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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-21 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212039 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Deep convection has become even more displaced from the center of Mario, and the closest thunderstorms are now more than 60 n mi to the southwest of the cyclone's exposed center. The intensity of the weakening tropical cyclone is now 40 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. Strong easterly shear affecting Mario is not expected to decrease much for the next day or two, and it seems unlikely that the cyclone will be able to recover. By the time the shear does relax early next week, Mario will be moving over much cooler waters, which should inhibit the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Further weakening is therefore forecast, and Mario is now expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours. Given current trends in convection, it's possible that Mario could become post-tropical sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is merely an update of the previous advisory. The tropical storm has drifted slowly northward so far this afternoon but should resume a north-northwestward track by tonight. The models are still in fairly good agreement that Mario will then be steered in that general direction for a few days after that. It is still within the realm of possibility that the cyclone could reach the Baja California peninsula, but it will likely become a remnant low before it does so. Little change was made to the official track forecast, which is very slightly east of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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