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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-11-16 09:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Infrared satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data show that the center of Raymond has become exposed to the west of the main convective mass. The ASCAT-B instrument revealed 35-40 kt winds to the northeast of the center, but it likely missed the area of strongest winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number. The window of opportunity for Raymond to strengthen appears to be closing as west-southwesterly shear is already increasing over the cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt later today, and Raymond should begin to weaken by tonight. The SHIPS model indicates that the shear will become very belligerent in 36 to 48 hours when the cyclone approaches a cut off low to the west of the Baja peninsula. Raymond is forecast to weaken to a depression within a couple of days when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and should degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The cyclone is likely to dissipate within 3 days, however a 72-h forecast position is provided for continuity. Raymond jogged west-northwestward earlier this evening, but it is expected to resume a north-northwestward heading very soon. A turn to the north should occur later today, and a north to north- northeastward motion is predicted tonight and Sunday as the cyclone is steered between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to the southeast. Once Raymond weakens, it is expected to turn northwestward within the low-level steering flow. The more westward initial position of Raymond has required a westward adjustment of the track but the new official forecast is again close to the center of the guidance envelope. Regardless of the cyclone's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the system will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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