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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-11-16 21:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 494 WTPZ45 KNHC 162036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 The could pattern has deteriorated this afternoon, and the circulation is still there, but becoming elongated. In fact, the convection no longer shows a cyclonic curvature and it has the appearance of a linear cloud band. Dvorak estimates also reflect some weakening, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been set at 40 kt. The shear is forecast to markedly increase soon as a mid-level trough or low develops just west of the Baja california peninsula. This belligerent shear pattern calls for weakening, and Raymond is forecast to become a tropical depression or even degenerate into a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. The system then should become absorbed by the developing mid-to upper level trough. The weakening is depicted by global models which clearly show the vertical fracture of the cyclone with the mid-level center moving northeastward over mainland Mexico and the weakening low-level center moving north-northwestward just west of the Peninsula. Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past several hours. However, most of the track guidance indicate that Raymond should move northward with an increase in forward speed embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula. The later portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.5N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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