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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-11-17 03:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Raymond's cloud pattern has continued to lose organization since the last advisory, with the remaining convection now occurring in a ragged band to the east of the center. The initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/5. A developing mid-latitude deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula is becoming the main steering influence for Raymond, and this feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and accelerate during the next 12-24 h. After that, Raymond or its remnants should turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitude system. Southwesterly vertical shear is increasing over the tropical cyclone, and it should increase further during the next couple of days. Thus, continued weakening is forecast, and Raymond is now expected to become a depression in 18-24 h, a remnant low by 36 h, and dissipate completely after 48 h. If organized convection does not return to the cyclone, all of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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