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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 46
2018-10-10 22:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102040 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken. Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much faster. Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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