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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 46

2020-09-23 22:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 232037 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Teddy is moving quickly north-northeastward just west of Newfoundland this afternoon as a decaying extratropical low. Maximum winds from an earlier scatterometer pass were about 50 kt, and the winds have probably come down based on pressure data from Meat Cove as the storm left Nova Scotia, so the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Little change in intensity is expected overnight as Teddy races near northwestern Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador overnight. The storm is then forecast to move across the Labrador Sea on Thursday and become absorbed into a powerful extratropical low, where hurricane-force winds are forecast southwest of Greenland. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. The most significant hazards expected from Teddy now are dangerous waves and high winds for Newfoundland, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for parts of southwestern Newfoundland. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 48.6N 59.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 24/0600Z 52.0N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 45

2020-09-23 17:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231436 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb. Since then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is slowly weakening. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. Teddy should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 46.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-09-23 17:09:24| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 44

2020-09-23 11:19:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230918 CCA TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Corrected status at 48H Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt. Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next 36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia today. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-23 10:41:59| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020

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