je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of Mindy made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida, near 0115 UTC. Since that time, the center has been moving along the shoreline of Apalachee Bay. The intensity is held at 40 kt based on continuity from earlier buoy data and a 43-kt wind at an elevated tower south of Apalachicola. The central pressure has been lowered to 1002 mb based on surface obs from the Apalachicola area. It should be noted that while Mindy is not well organized in satellite imagery, but it has a good radar presentation. The initial motion is 055/17. A general east-northeastward motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Mindy moves along the southern edge of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. After that, a decrease in forward speed and a more eastward motion are expected as the aforementioned trough moves away from Mindy and the cyclone becomes vertically shallow. The forecast track keeps the center along the Gulf coast for a few more hours, followed by a motion across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous forecast. Little change in strength is likely during the next few hours while the center of Mindy straddles the coast. Weakening should occur as the center moves farther inland later tonight, aided by an increase in westerly vertical wind shear. By the time the cyclone reaches the Atlantic, the shear should be strong enough to make the system continue to weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast during the first 12 h, then is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to dissipate after 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia near the center of Mindy. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 29.9N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-09 04:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090237 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf appears to be gradually strengthening. Deep convection has been increasing over the center, and banding features are becoming a little more pronounced. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. Since the system appears to be better organized from the time of the ASCAT pass earlier today, the initial intensity is nudged up and set near the high end of the estimates at 45 kt. Satellite images and recent microwave data suggest that the center of Olaf is a little to the east of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 335/6 kt. Olaf is expected to move generally northwestward for another 24 to 36 hours, which should bring the system just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur during that time. There is some spread in the models on how close the storm will get to the coastline, with the GFS to the east of the official forecast and the UKMET and ECMWF to the west and farther offshore. Beyond 36 hours, Olaf is expected to be located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge and that will cause a turn to the west-northwest away from Mexico. The NHC track forecast is adjusted again to the east of the previous one in the short term and then to the south of the previous one at the longer lead times. The new track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the various consensus aids. Olaf is located over warm waters, and embedded in a low wind shear and fairly moist environment. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening during the next day or so. Although not explicitly forecast, Olaf could become a hurricane when it is just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur, and a hurricane watch remains in effect for the possibility of those winds occurring on land. By Friday, a combination of cooler waters and a much drier environment should cause steady weakening, and the system is likely to become a remnant low over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN and IVDR consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes offshore of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-09-08 22:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 741 WTNT42 KNHC 082050 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite images this afternoon. The eye remains rather ill-defined but the hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around the center. Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined, particularly to the northwest. The current intensity estimate is held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to provide a new intensity estimate. The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 325/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the same as before. Larry should move around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of Bermuda tomorrow. After that, the hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours. Then, the cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track. Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days. Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening. However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler waters, as suggested by the global models. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane strength even after extratropical transition. In 5 days or less, the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over the north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 28.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
larry
forecast
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-08 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf's appearance has remained steady today and the storm is characterized by a large curved band that encompasses much of the circulation. There is good outflow in all quadrants, indicative of a low-shear environment. An earlier ASCAT pass sampled peak winds of 37 kt, and this data along with a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial intensity is around 40 kt. The storm is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely during that time period. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters, and into a drier and a much more stable atmospheric environment. This should result in rapid weakening, and Olaf is expected to become a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and continues to be in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although the NHC forecast does not explicitly show Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. Olaf continues to move slowly northwestward, or 325/5 kt. A mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico should help maintain this heading for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast when the shallow cyclone is steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The overall model guidance shifted slightly to the east through 48 hours, and thus the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction for that time frame. Because of this track shift, probabilities of tropical storm and hurricane conditions have increased for southern portions of Baja California Sur. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of this area. After 48 h, the guidance has shifted a little to the south, and the NHC forecast was tweaked in that direction as well. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 19.4N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-09-08 16:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 567 WTNT42 KNHC 081453 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's eye has been only faintly apparent on recent satellite imagery, but the hurricane is still maintaining a fair amount of deep convection near/around the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and observations found that the central pressure has risen only slightly since yesterday, with peak flight level winds of 118 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were only 75 kt, indicating that the strong winds aloft are not very effectively being transported to the surface. Given this, along with the slightly-degraded appearance of the system, the current intensity is reduced to 95 kt, which is just a bit above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly faster clip, or 320/11 kt. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure area and pass to the east of Bermuda. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough moving through the northeastern United States and become embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This will take Larry near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 60-66 hours and then over the far North Atlantic. The official forecast track has not changed significantly from those in the previous few advisories, and remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Larry should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and warm surface waters for the next 36-48 hours. However, the oceanic heat content beneath the hurricane should be gradually decreasing during the next few days. Only slow weakening is forecast, similar to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. In about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Larry will become embedded within a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast shows it as an extratropical cyclone by that time. In 5 days or less, the system is expected to merge with another large cyclone at high latitudes. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Bermuda. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 27.7N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
larry
forecast
Sites : [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] next »