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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 24

2021-08-16 04:35:03| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-15 22:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152051 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 An earlier ASCAT pass over Grace suggested that the maximum winds were 25-30 kt and this has been confirmed by observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Aircraft and scatterometer data also suggest that the circulation is elongated and disorganized. Based on these data, the system is being downgraded to a 30-kt depression at this time. Since the system is below storm strength and is passing by Puerto Rico, the Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued. The island of Hispaniola is kept under a Tropical Storm Watch given the possibility that the system could restrengthen tonight or tomorrow morning before moving over land. Most of the reliable guidance shows little change in strength over the next 2-3 days. This seems reasonable since the circulation will be interacting with the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is near or a little above the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance during that time. Some restrengthening is possible later in the forecast period when the system is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the global models are not very bullish on intensification in 4-5 days, perhaps due to drier air. The system has moved mainly westward today, but the track models are generally in agreement on a west-northwestward motion over the forecast period. This is consistent with a well-defined mid-level ridge staying in place over the southwestern Atlantic and across Florida during this week. The official track forecast has been shifted a little south of the previous one, following the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.0N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.6N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 18.2N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 19.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/1800Z 22.1N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 24.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 25.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 25

2021-08-15 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models. Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley just after 60 h. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 23

2021-08-15 22:32:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-15 16:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151457 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 Grace remains a disorganized system, with only slight evidence of curved bands of deep convection on satellite imagery. WSR-88D radar data from San Juan show broad rotation of the precipitation echoes, but no definite center. The advisory intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB. We are waiting for additional observations in the system from an upcoming NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission into Grace in a few hours. Grace is in an environment of moderate shear and reasonably moist mid-level environmental air. Therefore some strengthening is expected before the system reaches Hispaniola tomorrow morning. Thereafter, the future intensity of Grace is dependent on how much the circulation interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Weakening is likely due to the expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and some restrengthening could occur if the center emerges over water near the Windward Passage. Grace is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength while moving near the northern coast of Cuba. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast in 2-5 days. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 285/14 kt. A well-defined mid-level high pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for the next several days. The global models are in reasonable agreement on a track near/over the Greater Antilles, including Cuba, during the next several days and over the central Gulf of Mexico in the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast has been changed little from the previous one and is very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over northwestern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.2N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR N. COAST OF CUBA 72H 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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