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Tropical Storm BLAS Graphics
2016-07-03 22:37:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 20:37:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 20:37:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-07-03 22:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032037 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 Blas' cloud pattern has not changed appreciably in organization since the previous advisory. Visible and microwave satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone's low-level center is located at the northern tip of a long band whose convective tops have been slowly warming. This structure suggests that Blas' rate of intensification is not as fast as was suspected earlier, possibly due to some northeasterly shear and likely the cyclone's large size. The initial intensity is set to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is a steady 285/11. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Blas is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The GFS and ECMWF solutions have come into much better agreement beyond day 3, and the overall spread in the guidance is low through day 5. The new NHC forecast track is shifted to the north some, and lies very near the multi-model consensus. There does not appear to be anything conspicuous on the large scale that would prevent Blas from intensifying into a major hurricane during the next few days, and a large one at that. The NHC intensity forecast through day 3 is near or just below the statistical guidance, which is unanimously calling for Blas to become an intense hurricane. By 96 hours, even though the shear is forecast to remain low, the cyclone should be moving over steadily cooler waters and entering a drier and more stable environment. This should promote a weakening trend that will likely become more rapid by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.2N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 12.8N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.4N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 13.9N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 14.3N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.4N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-03 22:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 the center of BLAS was located near 12.2, -111.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm BLAS Public Advisory Number 4
2016-07-03 22:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 032036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 ...BLAS MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 111.4W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 111.4 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Blas is expected to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-07-03 22:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 032036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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