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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-12 16:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121430 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 120.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-12 16:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121430 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Graphics
2021-08-06 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 14:37:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 14:37:08 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-06 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061435 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been devoid of organized deep convection for at least 12 hours, and since the cyclone is moving over sub-23C sea surface temperatures, regeneration of deep convection is unlikely. Therefore, Hilda is designated as a 25 kt post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory from National Hurricane Center. The low should continue to move further into a dry and stable air mass and over even cooler waters. Consequently, weakening is forecast and the remnant low of Hilda should open up into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/9 kt, and this general heading, within the low-level flow, is forecast to continue until dissipation. For additional information on Hilda please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 23.1N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-06 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 6 the center of Hilda was located near 23.1, -134.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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