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Post-Tropical Cyclone EIGHT Graphics
2013-09-07 11:08:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2013 08:32:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2013 09:04:47 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-09-07 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070831 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TAMAULIPAS AND SAN LUIS POTOSI...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 21.4N 99.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 07/1800Z 21.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-09-07 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 070831 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 12 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 10 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone EIGHT (AT3/AL082013)
2013-09-07 10:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 the center of EIGHT was located near 21.4, -99.3 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone EIGHT Public Advisory Number 4
2013-09-07 10:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013 ...DEPRESSION WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 99.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI AND TAMAULIPAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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