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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Public Advisory Number 32
2020-10-07 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 070245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 136.2W ABOUT 1675 MI...2695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 136.2 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph, and this general motion should continue through Wednesday afternoon. A turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed should begin late Wednesday and continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-10-07 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 070245 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-10-07 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 070244 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 136.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Graphics
2020-10-06 04:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:32:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:32:45 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-10-06 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060231 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Gamma was entirely devoid of convection for most of the day. Shortly before sunset, a few disorganized thunderstorms developed to the southeast of the cyclone's center, however these appear to be forced at least in part by a sea breeze boundary and are not exclusively associated with Gamma. A few other small cells of convection have developed to the west of Gamma's center during the past hour or so, but not nearly enough to be considered sufficiently organized to meet the requirement for a tropical cyclone. Gamma is therefore now considered to be post-tropical and this will be the last NHC advisory. The cyclone could still produce some additional disorganized convection and periods of heavy rain overnight as it moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula, but this is not expected to result in significant regeneration. Some of this rain could impact areas that are preparing for the much more significant approach of Hurricane Delta in a day or so. The cyclone is moving southwestward near 5 kt, and this should continue for another day or so until it dissipates. The winds associated with Gamma's remnants should gradually weaken through that time, though the system could still produce a few areas of heavy rain over southeastern Mexico. It is worth noting that several model trackers, and consequently the consensus aids, depict that Gamma will move northward over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen significantly in a couple of days. This is because the trackers lose track of Gamma when it dissipates and start following nearby Hurricane Delta instead. In reality, no models forecast that Gamma will remain a well-defined cyclone for more than another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.6N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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