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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-10 09:48:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100848 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-10 09:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 100847 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Subtropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-10 09:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 9:00 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 the center of Theta was located near 28.8, -39.5 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-10 09:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 100847 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 39.5W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 39.5 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-10 09:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 100847 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 39.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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