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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2020-08-26 16:56:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 14:56:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 15:32:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-26 16:55:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261454 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER The depression remains poorly organized this morning with the ill-defined surface circulation decoupled well to the east of the convective mass. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support 30 kt for this advisory. UW-CIMSS shear analysis product shows stiff 20-25 kt of east-northeasterly shear impinging on the east portion of the depression. Both the FV3/GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the strong shear will persist through the forecast period. Consequently, little strengthening is expected during the next several days. Because of the vertical direction and magnitude, the forecast tropical-storm-force winds and the heaviest rainfall should remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the multi-model intensity guidance, and the global models beyond the 48 hr period which indicate the depression degenerating into a remnant low on day 3, and dissipation by day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be a drift east-northeastward, or 065/2 kt. The cyclone is embedded within an northeast-to-southwest oriented cyclonic gyre, similar to a reverse monsoon trough that typically forms in the western Pacific during the summer months. The depression is forecast to drift today in a general east-northeast to northeast direction followed by a turn slowly north-northeastward tonight. A motion toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. Afterward, a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the southwestern U.S. should force the cyclone west-northwestward to westward on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the depression should remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is nudged toward the NOAA HFIP Corrected Consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 22.6N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 22.6N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-26 16:53:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261453 CCA PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-26 16:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 17.3, -106.1 with movement ENE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-26 16:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261452 CCA TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 CORRECTED ADIVSORY NUMBER ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 106.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.1 West. The depression is temporarily drifting toward the east-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast later today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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