je.st

Home › thirteene

Tag: thirteene

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics

2017-08-18 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 14:47:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:34:12 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression thirteene

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-08-18 16:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181441 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Deep convection associated with the disturbance located over the open eastern Pacific Ocean has become better organized early this morning, and a primary convective band now wraps around the western half of the circulation. Shortwave-IR and first-light visible imagery suggest that a complex, but closed surface circulation exists. NHC is therefore initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the max winds measured in an earlier ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. Light easterly vertical wind shear has thus far limited convection to the western half of the circulation, but the GFS and ECMWF agree that the shear will lessen as the system moves farther west. Overall, the environment appears conducive for intensification for the next 3 days or so, and the NHC forecast indicates that the cyclone will become a hurricane by the end of this weekend. After that time, the cyclone will begin to weaken over much cooler waters. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, IVCN. Since the center has only recently formed, the initial motion estimate is a fairly uncertain 285/13 kt. There is fairly good agreement among the global models that the tropical cyclone will move generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 h along the southern boundary of a mid-level ridge that extends westward well into the eastern Pacific basin. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop in about 3 days that should cause the cyclone to slow and turn more toward the northwest and eventually toward the north-northwest. The official forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.6N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.3N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 19.1N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 21.4N 132.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 23.6N 133.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-18 16:40:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 14.8, -116.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression thirteene

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2017-08-18 16:40:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181440 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 41(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 120W 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 54(57) 10(67) 1(68) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32) 1(33) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number speed wind tropical