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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-02 10:56:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 the center of ISELLE was located near 14.8, -128.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 7
2014-08-02 10:56:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020855 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 ...ISELLE BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 128.4W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-08-02 10:56:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020855 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 131.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.7N 133.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N 134.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 147.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-02 05:14:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 02:37:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 03:06:30 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-02 04:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020238 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 Iselle's cloud pattern has increased in organization since the last advisory, transitioning from a banding to an eye pattern. Cloud top temperatures have also generally cooled in a small central dense overcast that has recently formed. Though ragged and occasionally obscured by high clouds, the 20 to 25 n mi diameter eye appeared well defined in an earlier AMSR-2 microwave overpass. Satellite intensity estimates were 3.5 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC, respectively, with the latest ADT CI values at 4.0. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/10. Iselle should move steadily west-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical ridge until a mid- to upper-level trough digging along 130W in 2-3 days causes the ridge to weaken. Only a modest decrease in forward speed is expected in at that time before the ridge re-strengthens over the central Pacific by day 4, resulting in Iselle's moving faster toward the west. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 2 days but diverges some after that time, with the guidance shifting noticeably to the south at later times this cycle. The official track has been nudged a bit south in the short term and southward even more by days 3-5, but is not as far south as the multi-model consensus TVCE. Iselle is likely to continue to intensify during the next day or two. The closed low-level ring of convection in microwave imagery could portend a period of rapid intensification in the short term. However, moderate north-northeasterly shear and marginal thermodynamic parameters suggest this to be a lower probability scenario. After about 2 days, sea surface temperature drop below 26.5C and the environment is expected to gradually become even drier and more stable later in the forecast period. The shear could also increase substantially by days 4-5 in association with an upper-level trough, but this will depend on how far north Iselle tracks. The intensity forecast is higher than the previous one through about 2 days but is unchanged at later times, representing a blend of the multi-model consensus and the FSU Superensemble output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.7N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 15.5N 130.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 15.8N 132.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 16.2N 134.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 16.4N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 16.5N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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