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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center. Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These cooler waters combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that. The global models show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days. The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only recently become well defined, but my best guess is north-northwestward at 10 kt. A strong mid-level ridge situated over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next couple of days. After that time, when the system is likely a shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is is steered by the low-level flow. The track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-16 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-16 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2018-08-05 16:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 14:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 14:38:22 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Eleven-E was located near 13.5, -97.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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