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Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-08 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 013 WTNT44 KNHC 081436 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 The cloud pattern of Debby this morning is definitely typical of a tropical cyclone instead of a subtropical system with moderate convection wrapping around the center, and a well defined upper-level outflow in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and CIMMS SATCON still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. A recent ASCAT pass suggest that this estimate could be generous. Debby is already moving over cooler waters, so a gradual weakening is anticipated before the system becomes extratropical and then gets absorbed by a larger trough. In fact, most of the reliable global models degenerate Debby into a trough of low pressure on Thursday. The initial motion is toward the northeast or 035 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is embedded within a mid-latitude trough, and will continue to move on this general northeastward track with some increase in forward speed in tandem with the trough until dissipation. The track models are in pretty good agreement on this solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 41.2N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 42.4N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 44.2N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 46.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-08 16:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 814 FONT14 KNHC 081435 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Debby (AT4/AL042018)
2018-08-08 16:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEBBY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 41.2, -48.3 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-08 16:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 073 WTNT34 KNHC 081434 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 ...DEBBY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.2N 48.3W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 48.3 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today and tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Debby is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-08-08 16:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 978 WTNT24 KNHC 081434 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 48.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 48.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.4N 47.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 44.2N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 46.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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