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Tropical Storm Henriette Graphics
2019-08-12 16:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 14:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 15:24:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-12 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Henriette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with microwave and first-light visible satellite imagery revealing a low level center that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. The overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past several hours, and therefore the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. This is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass showing a very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation. The initial motion is 295/10 kt. Henriette is expected to continue this general motion for the next 24 hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge that extends from northern Mexico to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is slightly south of the previous one through 24 hours, due to a more southward initial position. Beyond 24 hours, the official forecast is very near the previous one, and near the middle of the consensus aids. Northeasterly shear and dry air over the northern portion of the cyclone should continue to keep the low level center near the edge of the deep convection into tonight, preventing any further strengthening. By 24 hours, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and move into a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and weaken on Tuesday, with the system likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous one, and is in agreement with the various dynamical and consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 19.7N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Henriette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-08-12 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 121432 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 2 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Henriette (EP4/EP092019)
2019-08-12 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HENRIETTE MAINTAINS INTENSITY BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 the center of Henriette was located near 19.7, -112.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henriette Public Advisory Number 3
2019-08-12 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 933 WTPZ34 KNHC 121432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 ...HENRIETTE MAINTAINS INTENSITY BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 112.2W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Henriette is expected to begin weakening by Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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