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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 28

2020-08-04 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 959 WTNT34 KNHC 040248 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 78.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Stonington Maine to Eastport Maine. The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning south of the South Santee River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay * Tidal Potomac River * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound * Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 78.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will make landfall in southern North Carolina during the next hour or two, then move across eastern North Carolina for the rest of the night. The center move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern United States Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. After landfall, only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A station at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 72 mph (116 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River SC...1-3 ft Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay, Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the southern portion of the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina at this time, with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore farther to the north. Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across eastern North Carolina tonight, and from eastern Virginia northeastward into southern New England on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 28

2020-08-04 04:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 040248 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTPORT MAINE * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 76.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 46.8N 70.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.8N 68.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 52.9N 66.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 78.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Isaias Update Statement

2020-08-04 02:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 000 WTNT64 KNHC 040057 TCUAT4 Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 900 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars indicate that the maximum sustained winds associated with Hurricane Isaias have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 988 mb (29.18 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 recent reported sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the southwest eyewall of Isaias. SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

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Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-08-04 02:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 9:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 the center of Isaias was located near 33.1, -78.8 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-08-04 02:01:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 the center of Isaias was located near 32.8, -79.0 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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