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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-07-15 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt. Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-15 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FELICIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 the center of Felicia was located near 15.2, -119.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 7

2021-07-15 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 903 WTPZ31 KNHC 152034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...FELICIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 119.4W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.4 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday with a westward motion expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-07-15 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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