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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-26 04:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260250 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON THE NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 450SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 92.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Olga Graphics
2019-10-25 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Oct 2019 20:35:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Oct 2019 20:35:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Olga Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-25 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Olga Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Although Tropical Depression Seventeen began looking less and less like a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery, scatterometer data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that so far the tropical cyclone remains just ahead of the approaching cold front, with the aircraft showing the front located about 25 n mi from the center in the southwestern quadrant. In addition, the aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone's winds have increased to 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Olga. It should be noted that a large area of 35-45 kt winds is occurring west of the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico, although these winds are more due to the cold air surging across the Gulf than to the cyclone's circulation. Olga has begun its expected acceleration toward the north-northeast with the initial motion now 030/16. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The center is expected to cross the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning and eventually reach the eastern Great Lakes by late Sunday. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion through 36 h and an eastward shift in the guidance at 48 h. All indications are that Olga will complete extratropical transition during the next few hours as it merges with the cold front. The intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that the winds west of the cold front remain strong as they wrap into the circulation of Olga. The post-tropical low should weaken after landfall, and it is expected to dissipate just after the 48-h point. Key messages: 1. Since Olga is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 29.8N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1800Z 35.2N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z 40.1N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1800Z 44.5N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Olga Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-10-25 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 252034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 37 13(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MORGAN CITY LA 34 37 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 20 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NEW IBERIA LA 34 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 930W 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Olga (AT2/AL172019)
2019-10-25 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OLGA... ...EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 the center of Olga was located near 26.3, -93.2 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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