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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

2020-10-06 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 062036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)

2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Marie was located near 22.4, -135.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 31

2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 062035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 135.6W ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 135.6 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 31

2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 062035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 135.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics

2020-10-06 16:44:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 14:44:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 15:29:54 GMT

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